It has been nine years and I guarantee you you’re not getting false hits. Now they’re getting arrested. Prime is bigger. Then you have the channels program, which is the primary seller of HBO, Showtime, and Starz, and so forth. NBCUniversal is making a very similar argument. They generally aren’t people who want to be management consultants. Do you still license catalog content? More recently, it has announced plans to make shows based on the Lord of the Rings and Wheel of Time books. At least 70MM US homes have Amazon Prime, so they get Prime Video. Had you said you were coming? You also have the fact that Gartner has said that Amazon Video is now essentially neck and neck with iTunes, both domestically and abroad, in digital video downloads. Even advertising reflects a desire to access the largest TAM of all: the overall economy. It’s funny, I’ve literally talked to my kids about the fact that we generally sort of buy/rent, we buy a movie a month, give or take. Most people would rather save $10 on a ticket and watch something for free at home. We want to be the dominant destination for video. Unlike Amazon, Apple isn’t an e-retailer, nor is it an enterprise cloud services provider. Okay, so let’s start talking about how you view the world and then we can work backwards a little bit. This was two years in the making? 1/ Every new year tends to be seen as the one where Netflix will start to feel Big Media fight back 2019 looks right! I’m thinking you were more skeptical about the company we used to call Time Warner. And sure enough, there’s Matt Ball commentary on Twitter about it. That’s digital video, direct-to-consumer video, and the traditional ecosystem of pay TV is rapidly eroding. I think you can see that they’re nervous, and you can see that because they have multiple different video products in market. Duke scored the first six points of the second half, closed to … And I showed up and it was a very strange situation because I basically had to say to the attendant who didn’t even work for him, it’s a startup space, I was like, “My name is Liam Boluk.” And she says, “Can I see your ID?” And, of course, I have to say, “Well, it says Matthew Ball.” And so, she has to pass this weird note to Jason that says, “This guy Liam ...”. They will. I know him as the guy I’ve been asking to come on this podcast for how long, Matt? Yeah. For free. And I watched it, in and out, and again way out of the demo, it seemed terrible to me. Despite that fact, Amazon, which has a very strong anchor asset in Prime Video, seems to have by most third-party estimates really driven share gains in that share of direct-to-consumer subscriptions. Your thought about them displaying that video at WWDC was? Why Amazon is going to be one of the winners of the streaming video wars, This story is part of a group of stories called, Donald Trump just issued a surprise pardon for the man at the center of an epic fight between Google and Uber. You hear this a lot from people who work in media. We know that in the United States, there are 28 million homes that have Hulu. I mean, the fundamental anchoring of that company was rigorous decision-making. It is not going to drive first-time Prime subscribers, not Prime Video, but first-time Prime subscribers in Malaysia, in India, in Brazil. We spent a while shifting away from this model – to the point in which companies focused exclusively on consumer spend, such as HBO, emerged. We dive into the streaming wars to find out. He had connected me with the then head of Amazon Studios. What he also knows, however, is sometimes that decision is earlier. And the tech companies themselves have built businesses around selling other companies’ media subscriptions – they certainly don’t want to destroy them. Yeah, they’re phenomenal characters. At the office. And what was that experience like working there for you at that time? There is a strange disconnect between our collective obsession with media and the amount of money we spend on it. And then, a few months later, I went to work for The Chernin Group, specifically at Otter Media under Sarah Hardin. After its own bout with disaster, Columbia Pictures was purchased by Coca-Cola (!!! You said Disney has stuff that they do value enough, the brand is meaningful enough, it’s going to work. Downton. On the latest episode of Recode Media with Peter Kafka, Ball said Amazon has successfully synergized its media offerings to catch up with the once-dominant Apple. That goes away. If you take a look at the company overall, the primary competitors that are identified are the HBOs, are the Amazons, are the Hulus. We’ve seen that with Emmys and Golden Globes year in and year out. They’ve been in this business for quite some time. Well, first job out of B school, which is ... I’m Canadian. There are still 30 million people who go to a Disney Park a year, the opportunity to give that as a free trial, to push it, to give a family that spends $5,000 on a cruise line a year-long subscription ... all of those augment their opportunity to get it. And so, I went to run that. But there’s no one — really — to police the platforms except their owners and employees. I’m going to share it with you.”. The full pardon of Anthony Levandowski came out of nowhere. Both of these companies are likely to survive, for very different oppositional reasons. And I don’t mean that in a pejorative way. Okay. What is the big thing most people don’t understand about Netflix? There are numerous examples of that. Now we call it AT&T/WarnerMedia. They’ve got another 90 or 100 million globally. And so, when you talk about someone like me who had written first about what I think the digital opportunity looks like, Chernin was focused on going after, with real rigor, emerging but generally overlooked small to modest opportunities like Crunchyroll, and then going to Amazon, which is saying, “We’re going for it. So, I mean look, this is really the story of the same opportunity. Matthew Ball. So, they hire you to be sort a brain at Amazon. For the first eighty years of television, a company launched a video network to collect a share of the video pie. They have some interesting concepts under the founder, Chris Meledandri, of how to go after interactivity digital media of many of the themes that I’m very passionate about. One is, as with the Netflix pieces, it’s a frustration with a narrative that I think is wrong and I have the selfishness to want to correct it. You can listen to Recode Media wherever you get your podcasts — including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Pocket Casts, and Overcast. And Jason had discovered the blog at one point and curated it in his Media Redef newsletter. Yeah, so there were two stories in the last couple days about this. To some extent, and I talk about this with a friend of mine who you know, if you stop playing for a month, even that time can be daunting. Instead, they’re being used to access other, more lucrative ones. “Hey, we’ve got to talk about this,” yeah. It’s that anecdote that people give, where their 2-year-old picks up a hard-copy magazine, tries to swipe it and can’t. That changes what content you do acquire, how much you invest, what the business rationale is. I had recently moved to the United States. That’s a good business if you can get it. “The goal with everything that Amazon does is to satisfy customers and to give them the fullest range of possible options.”. That’s a good laugh. They took everyone’s great content, and even mediocre content, and said, “We’re going to make something new with this.”. And so, now we were going to customers and saying, “We will give you a better experience, with more content, with a direct access to the HBO content you like.” And, by the way, internally, we’re now no longer paying for that, right? In 2021, the company will launch an ad-supported version of HBO Max. “I found all his stuff. Half of that is captured by Best Buy or Walmart, it’s not going to Disney. I think what Apple is looking to do is replicate the Amazon video flywheel. I entered management consulting with this perception of the halcyon days that probably ended in ’97, where you do two years of management consulting and everyone wants to hire you. Please consider making a contribution to Vox today, from as little as $3. Below, we’ve shared a lightly edited full transcript of Peter’s conversation with Matthew. You first started coming to my attention under someone else’s name. That makes it very ruthless for those who are left, and if you believe that it’s not going to get to 10, it’s very hard to see how many people are going to win. After a long, arduous day of staring at your computer screen at work, sometimes nothing feels better than staring at your computer screen at home. Was that a first job out of school type of thing? Yeah, I can see lots of things you could do with Despicable Me 1, 2, 3, and all of those. And I think one of the interesting questions is actually not just, are they going to add live sports, it’s how does Prime Video change if live sports exists? You’re a handsome man, you do not look like a ballerina. It is also notable that half of the market is now “free-to-play games” that require $0 upfront (again, we resist spending money) and then use casino-like tricks to generate revenue in “micro” payments. Some of that time per day is highly intentional prioritized time. And so, I just started doing that. We could talk about the merits of the bundle, but it’s clear that Apple wants to get into this sort of creating their own bundle, selling versions of the bundle. Yeah. You do and I do because I went to one of the premieres. Yeah, I think so, and we’ve already seen numerous examples of that. We’re going to flash up graphics, like you’d see if you were playing an EA game, and they’re just going to chat. Because the networks are pulling stuff back, and/or they’re saying we don’t want to pay network X for this stuff. A lot of stuff that most regular people don’t care about. Netflix is in the crossfire of this ecosystem war and will need to excel through specialization and a first-mover advantage to be sustainable. Now they’re getting there, and now they’re getting to the point where they’re saying, “You know what I really value? And the fact that they are spending billions of dollars on video, yet when I go to Amazon.com, I don’t see any evidence of the fact that there’s video there, there has to be a method to that madness. And what’s that impulse to write? On the other end of the court Roach, Matt Hurt and D.J. When the future of the world looked like picking from two dozen Netflixes, it made sense the average household would settle on only a few. The largest category globally is TV, which has only $300B in annual consumer spend. It does today. You’ve written about them multiple times. I don’t know whether or not they do or don’t to make it work. It’s not Downtown Abbey. It is about how you package or go to market. Prior to that, I was a management consultant at Accenture. $120 for a year of Spotify or Apple Music (i.e. Follow Vox online: Site search Search. Right. Once that talent, to some extent, grows up, to another another extent moves into more traditional media, that convergence of gaming and media occurs, that’s where you’ll start to see the innovation. Today, 200MM iOS devices are sold per year in the United States, so at least 75MM homes will get Apple TV+ Originals (an Apple Prime bundle will grow this even higher). Once the studio had repaired its finances, it diversified its way into resorts, soft drink bottling and film theaters. For a long time, I’ve assumed that the people who work at Amazon, Jeff Bezos on down, know what they’re doing. But now I’m sort of questioning it. Look, I mean it’s not altogether ... when we talked about Alpha House, that was another show about Congress staffers living together. If they want to do that, and that makes them more likely to hang out with us than do something else, great. Matthew has 3 jobs listed on their profile. It’s very simple. The reduction in other pre-digital advantages, such as foreign bureaus, further eroded margins. And even then, an average of 96% of users still spend not a penny and 50% of revenue comes from the 0.4% willing to spend a lot. Many of us insist on filling every available moment with media of some sort, regardless of whether we’re working, driving, cleaning, exercising, lying in the bathtub or trying to sleep. Okay. So, you were there under the Roy Price era. The real question there is, we know that on digital, the feedback loops are very strong. Right, and there’s actually significant upside to Disney, because if you think about that $3.2 billion in consumer spend, half of that is markup that goes to the retailer. I think the more important way to think about it is really in this idea that what we traditionally think of as video games and what we traditionally think of as video is converging. Once it was possible to distribute content everywhere and at no cost, for example, the print industry’s subscription and advertising revenues imploded. We have always had times in the history of video where you have a primary service that drives tremendous value, that is bulk viewing, high tonnage, low cost per hour watched, and audiences still make time in their lives to go after what’s most important to them. What’s more, most expect this sum to shrink as the bloated and barely competitive pay-TV ecosystem gives way to lower cost or free substitutes such as Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, and so on. 1/ I'm stunned, but not surprised by AT&T's decision to extended their #Friends licensing deal with Netflix through 2019. Correction: A previous version of this article misstated the number of Fire TV users. He disagreed with me about Netflix, as an example, and that started to make some of the partners ... Yeah, out of my old B school publication. But so, Jason doesn’t know the names of this random blogger, let alone this double hyphenated, weird name. You want to be idly entertained. I want to explain to the readers who don’t know who you are who you are. I think you’re pro-Disney, we can talk about this. I think what they are seeing is that they’re struggling to compete with Amazon in that video space, despite some of the aforementioned advantages, and they’re trying to figure out ways to improve that offering. That’s different from saying two things. Do you think that they need to spend billions of dollars to create video to make this work? Actually, I think I’m going to do video gaming. Each day, the average American watches more than five and half hours of video, in addition to some two and half hours of music. We reinterpret it as The Grand Tour. I think the whole point is that flywheel, devices, channels, digital downloads, and Amazon content is all synergistic. This has persisted even in the digital era in which the adage “consumers will pay for content” has taken hold. People take for granted now that Prime Video is going to be one of those. Now we’re going to discuss who Matthew Ball is. So to take an example, I was speaking recently to the former CEO of Square Enix, Wada-san, and he was talking about the fact that the original console or rather ... Let me step back. Previous. You have a ... You do these tweetstorms and then you also do actual written copy. I found it pretty surprising that their first opportunity to really show off with their video product was a few months ago at their video-centric release. It’s hard for me to imagine most people even know Amazon Prime Video exists. If I sound intimidated, if I sound nervous, it’s because I’m talking to the Matthew Ball, a man some of you know as “that guy on Twitter.” Some of you know him as the guy who writes really long pieces in Media Redef. WandaVision is Marvel Studios’ first big Disney Plus show. We saw that a few years ago with Twitch, with more communal cheer-based, text-based, live experiences. With David Fincher and Kevin Spacey and it looks like it could be an HBO show. And I kept doing that. But again, there are not 300 million Americans saying, “I want to watch five-and-a-half hours of YouTube.”. He also said it’s no accident that Amazon Prime Video’s original content offerings have changed over the years. I think the lesson here, I’m guessing, is it’s very hard for the incumbent company to figure out how to do a different version of itself. The tweetstorms get longer and longer, and then you retweet yourself, periodically. So you take a look at the past six years, Netflix has effectively grown its pricing by 60 percent. Amazon and Google are moving into video gaming primarily to benefit their cloud computing businesses. Featuring: Matthew Ball (@ballmatthew), Analyst So this isn’t just a matter of ESPN saying, “Well look, if we’re going to do this, we’ve got to hire whoever works at Twitch,” or, “We’ve got to go hire the Fortnite team. You may come back again, because I’ve got more questions for you. I think that’s right. We talk non-stop about Miley Cyrus’s latest antics and the feminist bravado of Beyoncé. Another giant, Fox, closed up shop rather than fight the digital-era war. And so broadly, right, the idea is Amazon sells subscriptions to other people’s stuff through Amazon. And if there’s something I want to watch that’s specific, I’m choosing it. The partners did not like that. Which is to say, the Fire TV is now in, I think they said 36 million homes in the United States. It does count as a compliment. Right. Or is it actually once, you know, actually streaming the stuff over the internet’s not that complicated in 2019? Okay, good. Jason talks about going to lunch with Kevin Mayer, a big-deal Disney executive, and Bob Iger, the biggest-deal Disney executive, and this is what Jason says about you: “We’re having lunch at Disney and Iger says, ‘You know you’re an idiot,’ and I’m like, ‘Why is that, Bob?’ And he goes, ‘You give away for free what we pay tens of millions of dollars a year for from management consultants.’”. What am I missing? Frankly it’s actually so strong you are likely to underestimate how popular it is, not overestimate it or even value it appropriately. I just wrote for him. They have a stunning brand. If you pick up Fortnite for the first time ... Yeah. As long as no one can corner the market in video, and as long as audiences are still going to say, “I want some of that, I want some of that, I want some of that,” it’s going to be expensive. Amazon is “guaranteed” to be one of them, he says. Why the best referees for Twitter and Facebook may be the people who work there. Subscribe to Recode podcasts to hear Kara Swisher and Peter Kafka lead the tough conversations the technology industry needs today. The bundle needs to exist. Frequently when someone writes about ... Oh, everyone’s ... There’s a Disney service and a Warner service and Amazon, etc. Now it doesn’t really matter as much if you’re getting it direct mail, if you’re getting an Amazon.com reminder. We’ll say 2000s and 2010s of note, too. And we’ll see how that shakes out, but I think the core is, there is still demand for massive amounts of content that has not gotten cheaper, and in fact most of the new entrants, Amazon, Apple, and so forth ... Are coming in with more. One of Matthew Stafford’s passes made the top 10 longest throws by air distance yards of the 2020 season, according to Next Gen Stats. I think that might not be allowed. If you take a step back and you take a look at the rise of D2C [direct to consumer] services, such as HBO Now or Showtime, those services all launched first and foremost on iOS. And, to some extent, the street analysis said, Amazon keeps pivoting and moving, and what does that mean about the last strategy? Right now, I’m raising a venture fund ... And the goal is to go after and invest in many of the topics that I’ve written about and many of the theses that I’ve had for a few years. But the audience is choosing that they still want it there. If Apple comes out at a free price point, you’re now all of a sudden going to have 1 billion active iPhones that have access to that content. But as OTT distribution has deflated almost all of these advantages, it’s no surprise that margin profiles and ambitions have changed. They’re built in to their cable distribution deals, that HBO has to be $15 a month, so do you charge more by adding other stuff in there? They also now own Hulu. An aggregated bundle of all genres, all styles, that is intended to deliver to audiences for multiple hours per day of usage. You had to spend $100 per month to get HBO, traditionally, and that means you were accessing untold thousands of TV shows per month, and audiences still said, “I’m going to spend an extra $15 to get HBO.”. That’s the short version. Through 15 games, here’s where are Game Ball standings stand: Matthew Stafford: 13 Jack Fox: 13 Romeo Okwara: 9 D’Andre Swift: 7 T.J. Hockenson: 7 Taylor Decker: 7 … At the same time other forces advanced in E.Ghouta reaching some parts of Hazrama (2) It’s not about maximizing the share of a consumer’s video time or video spend or video data, but monopolizing a consumer’s free time, spend, and data. How you use that asset is challenged by its price point, by it’s most-favored nations clauses for current distribution, the fact that it is not an ad-supported system, the protection of the brand, those are all challenges, but if you said that you were an underdog and you got to use HBO, people would laugh. Spend on books and video gaming are only $140B each. However, this model slowly started to return as pay-TV was discounted to drive broadband and/or landline phones, with deep discounts applied to HBO, Showtime and Starz in order to increase pay-TV customer retention. Bonus and ad-free content available with Stitcher Premium. Can you help me find a job?” And he had a very reasonable response that should have been the one that I went in with at the time, but I was too young and naïve. What about all the stuff on YouTube that is free/nearly free? I mean, if we were to take apart why 3-D worked, why VR didn’t work, and when and if those might come around, there are distinct reasons for that. I believe there was a livecast, but those of us listening at home not attending in person couldn’t see the trailer. The second is that you are going to be able to build a large, viable business. It’s about access. So if you take a look at that idea of how is it that 300 million Americans spend five-and-a-half hours a day watching video, it’s because it reflects, it allows, that full range of engagement. But how do they do that? So, I was told very clearly, “You have to stop this. “No one ever programs for the audience they don’t have,” Ball said. The question is not necessarily, “Is this going to be engaging, is the technology too early, is it just hitting the right demo?” It’s going to take some time for the new creatives to emerge, to want to play with these tools, to see whether Bandersnatch works, how it does, what the limitations are. However, the most instructive example of the value-spend disconnect is likely print. We don’t see any of those classic companies. Very different format, very different monetization. And given media can now be delivered at no marginal cost, it makes sense to deprioritize its revenue model for other areas. No. Not only was competition capped for decades (first by finite broadcast spectrum, then by as little as what channel number a new network would get), but every player succeeded together (hence the bundle), no one network could satisfy all audiences (you could only air one thing at a time), revenues were guaranteed (via multi-year distribution agreements + clear advertiser model as long as viewers showed up), and customers could never be lost (they were always a channel surf away). I want to go through a few more media companies and then I want to talk more about you. Then you have the advent of mobile games. And so, I think I waited for 20 or 30 minutes and he finally comes out and is like, “What is going on here?” And I just said, “Hey, you seem to like my work. “I think I can spot value in I’m assuming media and technology.”. So, you think my thought that video games are something you do in one part of the house around one screen or one device or watching TV is something you do, it’s a distinct thing, that’s an old fuddy-duddy way of looking at it, and everyone is ... younger folks are going to increasingly converge? Steward were putting the ball in the basket. We have all this other stuff we put out through Turner. And then we hit the valley, and everyone said, “Actually, consumers don’t actually want this.” You’re pretty confident consumers do want this. We’re going to charge a lot of money for this podcast. Now, from the outside, it looks like that era is over and what they want to do is big swings, a Lord of the Rings prequel, everything has to be bigger, bigger, bigger, bigger audiences. Featuring: Matthew Ball (@ballmatthew), Analyst Film ticket prices are up 12% since 2000, but this amounts to only one extra dollar and is no different than the inflation adjusted prices of the late 1980s. It’s a company that is trying. Yeah, and part of that is really just a question of brand. What do you think they’re trying to do? By clamping down on DC rioters, Airbnb is finally acting like it owns the place. Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is a marvelous show. At the same time, I think that there is a very valid argument that consumers, that families and parents, would prefer a dedicated Disney-branded service. Along the way they dropped a three-minute preview of one of their Apple+ TV shows. It’s true that many media businesses achieve decades of high margins and reliable revenues. That’s part of what you do. Well, as you just heard, I’m not the best judge of how to monetize my own work, and certainly, as the CEO of Disney and owner of ESPN, Bob knows quite well, so maybe you should go with him. You like both what Netflix is doing and you also think what Disney has lined up is also going to be a successful product. The alternate feed makes sense to me, but we’re going to do one aimed specifically at teens, and what we’re going to do is we’re going to get Katie Nolan, our sort of millennial-ish host, put here with three other people and they’re going to talk while the game is going on. They weren’t doing Ashton Kutcher shows until well after that. Instead, they were in the business of charging advertisers for the right to their viewer’s attention. It was the perfect example of a company that has strong convictions, incredible assets, but is new to the space. You’ve read his stuff, he isn’t who he seems to be, you should talk to him.”. We’re speaking a day after Apple’s WWDC conference. But you think it’s a pretty good bet to think that they’re going to spend $10, $13, $15, $16 a month on Netflix, and watch a lot of stuff there, and for another $7 they’re going to watch less stuff from Disney, but stuff they really value. I think it’s one bolstered by the massive reach they have, and with all these tech companies, to some extent, it comes down to a question of how long and how deep do you want to play for this? I’m Peter Kafka, that’s me. Keep doing what you’re doing, but I’ll work with you to make the pieces better. It doesn’t matter whether it was this year or last year or even 2021. The impulse kind of comes from one of three areas. Yeah, so let’s just talk about what you think about Apple’s plans as far as we know, what they’re gonna do. However, this generally reflected high barriers to entry and the regularity of consumer need, rather than the value of content itself. It was one of those catch-22s where if it’s bad, no one cares and it doesn’t help you. A Satirical Essay for Recode/Vox: 10 lessons for all the streamers trying to take down Netflix. Still, per capita ticket sales have fallen from five per year in 2000 to less than three and half today. Right, where they’ve said this is a subscription product, which could or couldn’t mean you do or don’t pay money for it. The narrative about Matthew Mayer—that his overconfidence is why he used to turn down shots as often as an alcoholic on $2 fireball night—is wrong. Reality is, we know from the other angle, actually Streaming the on. To introduce myself could have a counter to that, I can spot in... To prevent violence in the United States, there ’ s just things happen was this year or year!: [ see carousel for descriptions ] companies will win the Streaming ”. Gave an incredible promotional opportunity today, every studio is part of that argument offended by it,?. 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